No-Confidence Motion (NCM) تحريڪ عد۾ اعتماد

 No-Confidence Motion (NCM) تحريڪ عد۾ اعتماد

¹. Introduction 

2. Background

3. Current status

4. features/objectives

5. Causes 

6. Implications/effects 

7. Importance 

8. Critical analysis

9. Case study(India) 

10. Conclusion

 

NCM 

1. INTRODUCTION

Definition 

A non confidence motion or vote of non confidence, is a constitutional procedure to evoke proceedings of the house, according to which subject called into a question under NCM is required to prove his majority/credibility to continue to be in position. In parliamentary democracies, heads of the governments/premiers often confronts such a motion, according to which they prove through means of votes, their constitutional credibility to continue to act as a chief executive by proving their majority.

In case of Pakistan, there are many articles that apprise us about NCM. More specifically it is article 54 and article 95 that presents us with a clear picture for NCM proceedings in Pakistan. According fo art 54, first a requisation must be delivered to the speaker of the assembly to summon a parliamentary session. Whereas, article 95 requires a resolution to be submitted to the speaker that should call for the NCM with an approval of not less than 20% (68 MNAs). 

the NCM assumed relevance, more recently, when Pakistan Democratic Movement(PDM)-an alliance of nine parties brought NCM against PM Khan on (8th March 2022). Resultantly, PM Khan is obliged to prove confidence of house by achieving 172 votes (simple majority)  out of 342-consisted lower house(Parliament).

2. Background

The NCM is not a new phenomenan to Pakistani political matrix.  It was dispensation of Benazir Bhutto in 1989 that confronted with challenge of NCM for the very first time in history of Pakistan. The managed to afloat against storm of NCM. The second instance was witnessed in 2006 when opposition managed to accumulate 136 votes in their bucket that failed NCM once again. Thus, it would be worthy to note here that NCM has never been materialized to oust any PM in history of Pakistan. However, there have been instances under which speaker of National Assemblies had been removed. The first such event took place in 1986 against Syed Fakhr Imam Speaker NA in 1986. The second ouster of Speaker by evoking NCM was demonstrated in 2003 against then speaker of the NA Ch Amir Hussain. 

The history lead us to the conclusion that though no PM has been ousted by NCM but NCM has been a major democratic tool to ensure keep a check on PM in parliamentary democracy of Pakistan. Therefore, PM Khan like his predecessors must face a NCM and prove his required number. In contrary case, PM should allow smooth transition of power to the opposition because that is what democratic credentials demand from a state being governed under a parliamentary democracy.

3. Features of NCM 

3.1 Requisation to call NA session must be submitted before tendering of NCM.

Under article 54 of the constitution, if opposition wants to submit resolution of NCM then the first compulsion for them is to submit requisition to convene NA session. The requisition to call upon a NA session must be signed by 1/4th of total members of the house. The speaker NA is, thereafter, under obligation to convene a session within 14th days. 

Combined Opposition Parties-PDM submitted requisition on 8th March 2022. Thus speaker was under duty to convene session by 22th march but government made an excuse of OIC session which was taking place in parliament to further delay the session. Finally speaker convened session on 25th march 2022. Speaker used a tactic of parliamentary norms and didn't allow resolution to be submitted in parliament. Speaker adjourned the house to the 28th March 22.

3.2 Submission of  resolution of NCM in NA.

Afterwards, under article 95 of the constitution, opposition must submit a resolution calling for NCM in the Majlis shoora(Parliament). It is neccessary that at least 20% of the MNAs must sign this resolution; which is about 68 MNAs out of 342.  Opposition submitted NCM resolution on 28th March but speaker once again bluntly adjourned the session to the 31st March 22

3.3 Once NCM is submitted, speaker is bound to organize voting not later than seven(7) days.

Once the resolution is submitted, the speaker is under constitutional duty to organize voting within 7 days. However, it is also obligatory that after 3 days of submission, speaker must allow  debate to take place on floor of the house on a particular NCM. 

The speaker in present NCM against Khan acted ultra-vires as speaker didn't allow debate to occur inside parliament on a given subject. Under the rules speaker was under obligation to allow debate to take place on 31st March but speaker bulldozed the constitution by not allowing debate on NCM. Speaker once again dragged NCM session to the 3rd April on which speaker was bound to organize voting. 

On third april we saw complete destruction of constitutional principals and democratic norms when deputy speaker who was acting on behalf of speaker of NA bluntly abrogated the NCM all together. Speaker couldn't pass such a ruling as he himself was under NCM which has already been moved against him. Thus, we saw telecast of political soap opera under which mockery of constitutional principals were made by very whom are constitutional creators and protectors.

3.4 NCM voting against PM will take place via an open ballot box.

NCM voting against PM will take place via an open ballot box. This is instilled in constitution to ensure transparency and fairness. This is also to determine exact number required success of NCM and to know who is voting for whom?

3.5 Simple majority of the house is required for the NCM to succeed.

The NCM requires simple majority of members of NA to be successful. The lower house of Pakistan is comprised of 342 members, if we will divided into two then the number would be reduced to the 171. Whereas for simple majority NCM will need 1+ vote. In a case opposition has been able to show 171+1=172, then NCM is bound to succeed and PM will cease to hold the office.

If media reports to be believed then opposition had support of 196 members. One does not need to be Newton to make a calculation that PM Khan has constitutionally lost confidence of the house. Accordingly he has no right to hold the office of the chief executive.

4. Current status of the NCM 

4.1 The NCM has been unconstitutionally killed by the government that has transformed a political into a constitutional crisis.

The country had been under political crises for considerable period of the time. But the episode of political soap drama took a new twist when constitutional principal were sidelined to the edge of square of political chessboard. Such blunt disregard by the sitting government for the constitution has converted a political crisis into constitutional crisis. Each party is alleging the other for the treason, conspiracy, subversion of constitution and patronage by the external hands.

4.2 Opposition approaches SC. 

Opposition has approached SC to interpret article 6 of the constitution that calls for subversion of the constitution. Opposition has also requested SC to interpret following two points to make a clarity of constitution on NCM procedures.

1. Whether the conduct of speaker of the NA synchronize with the constitution 

2. What would be the position of the constitution regarding decision of dissolution of NA by the PM Khan.

On the other hand, government is trying to wrap opposition under article 5 that calls for loyalty for the state and its constitution. Khan led PTI- Government has alleged that opposition is working at behest of USA to de-seat him from power. Khan has frequently been citing a letter written by his own ambassador to US as an evidence of accompliance of US and Opposition to dethrone him. 

It would be now seen how court will bring to light interpretation of the constitution to the audience closely watching these theatrics being performed between opposition and government. It is on SC to restore supremacy of constitution.

5. Causes of NCM

5. 1. Economic failure of PTI government 

Since the time PTI government has assumed the charge of incumbency, it has mismanaged economy. The devaluation of rupee to cope current account deficit triggered the inflation as Pakistan's economy heavily relied on imports. To deal with this, government of the Khan IMF but that invited more strict conditions in form of heavy taxes, squeezing revenue from  rising cost of the bills. Consequently, the cost of the living for the people of Pakistan has substancially been increased due to the adventurous economic policies of PTI. 

Presently, the inflation stands at 12.3%, whereas GDP has dropped from $314 billion to $263 billion. The value of rupee stands at 183 Rs against 1 US dollar. This has dented the PTI's and more specifically Khan's reputation of messiah who was meant to be saviour and pin point solution to all miseries of the country. 

The opposition gauged the pulse of the people and planned to struck the axe on iron when it was heat to its peak point to cut it off into pieces. Thus, mismanagement of economy can be referred as primary reason of the NCM.

5.2 Creation of PDM.

PDM is an alliance of 10 opposition parties. PDM came into being on 20th Sept 2020. Moulana Fazal Ur Rehman of JUI was appointed as its convener. Since its inception, PDM has firmly been vocal and active against PM Khan's administration. It has openly called into question the credibility of 2018 election to what PDM refers it as most rigged elections. 

The PDM has a huge presence in NA with about 163 seats that can be broadly broken into following:

PMLN 82

PPP 54

MMA 15

OTH 15

PTI government was consist of 

PTI 155

PML(Q)5

MQM: 7

BAP: 5

GDA: 3

JWP: 1

PDM was deprived of the  numbers to reach 172 for the success of NCM but defections within rank of PTI and switch of loyalty by the allies of PTI government made PDM's task easy for them.

5.3 Fall out with the military.

Military has always been a major player in every dispensation of Pakistani government. PTI was no exception in this regard. For its initial years PTI and military shared a cordial relations but the situation went from bad to worst when standoff over appointment of DG ISI took place in October last year. Resultantly, military withdrew itself from political affairs and has confined itself just to  its constitutional role. The fall out with military is being enlisted as major reason for the trouble of PM Khan.

5.4 Diplomatic failures 

The foreign policy adopted Khan is also not something that is appreciative. Khan has brought a diplomatic isolation for Pakistan. The CPEC is standstill, our relations with US are frozen, complete disengagement with India, and Pakistan is continue to be subjected to the hanging sword of FATF.

Moreover Khan also irked many friends of Pakistan such as Saudia and UAE. 

More recently, Khan has undertaken a visit to Russia at an adventurous moment that has further upset the already upset Washington. Khan:s failure to handle foreign relations has also been cited by opposition leaders as one of the primary factor behind NCM

6. IMPLICATIONS.

6.1 NCM has exacerbated the political instability in Pakistan.

Pakistan has been under a political turbulence for quiet a while now but NCM has further worsen the situation as it shut narrow window of opportunity of a working relationship between opposition and Khan led PTI-government. The attention of government diverted from public deliverance to neutralization of NCM whereas opposition has been on a mirage to increase number of MNAs by alluring them with set many offers and proposals to desert PTI. That has only added oil to the fire by further intensifying the war of words between opposition and government spokespersons. Whilst government has completely been distracted from working for the people.

6.2 Democracy has been dented. 

Country has seen two smooth transition of power from two elected governments. NCM has broke this chain as government seems to be reluctant to transfer power to their political opponents. Moreover government has gone to a next level by publically threatening MNA with mob lynching, social boycott and approaching court get them disqualified for the lifetime under Article 63A. The conduct of the government is contrary to the democratic norms which is an unfortunate development for a country like Pakistan that has striven hard to establish democracy.

6.3 Constitutional crisis.

NCM can assume role of the constitutional crisis as both opposition and government are firm on their determination to achieve their set of objectives. Government has already violated the constitution on more than one occasion during  current NCM. The recent abject reject of the NCM altogther by the speaker has converted political crisis into constitutional crisis. In order to deal with this crisis, SC will now have to address the questions that have revealed on it with the opening of new pandora box in form of extra-constitutional conduct of the speaker. SC will have to interpret the constitution in a way that must uphold constitution whilst diffuse the situation politically.

6.4 NCM can create a law and order situation.

Government of the day is trying to electrify people by using its old populist narrative by constantly attacking its opponents. Its supporters are publically heckling MNAs and threatening them of dire consequences. PM himself has publically stated that once NCM fails then opposition will have to face hard consequences. Such kind of threats can not be entertained and one can not expect from sitting government to adopt such a harsh attitude. NCM is a right of the position under constitution of Pakistan. Government, rather  demonstrating their street power, would have poured energy to ensure its majority. Currently, the situation is worsening to an extent where it can turn into a law and order situation where one section of a society will be in conflict with another. Government must not manipulate sentiments of the people just to dash NCM.

6.5 NCM can lead us towards the early elections.

Another Implication of NCM can come out in form of declaration of early elections. Country was due to hold elections in 2022. However, if government and opposition fail to resolve politico-constitutional crisis then only way out of the current imbroglio  would be by going to the people. 

7. IMPORTANCE OF NCM

7.1 NCM upholds democratic norms. 

Democracy itself is a phenomenan that is enrooted in majoritarianism. This is a beauty of democracy that even if you lose by the 1 vote you will not be deserving enough to represent your people. NCM in Pakistan can cement democratic principals to uphold norms of democracy and end political mess by ousting a PM by democratic way rather than a judical or military coup. It will make a history where PM for the first time will be ousted by democratic and constitutional way rather than by some back door conspiracy.

7. 2. demoratic and parliamentary method to keep a check on government

NCM do help a country's parliament to be a carrot and stick for a particular office holder. Until a office holder enjoys support of majority of members by showing performance by working for the people, NCM act as a  carrot but if a elected official fail to oblige with aspirations of people then NCM can be used as a parliamentary stick to punish a public official by de-seating from a particular position.

 

7.3. Ensure government refrain from abuse of power 

As early stated, that NCM is parliamentary check on a elected official, it can also be used to check abuse of power by the executive of the country as in Pakistan the separation of power between legislature and executive is quite thin.

7.4. In case of failure of govt it provides a way to oust govt 

NCM can inflict cost on the government if it is unable to fulfills demands of the people and the promises that they have made to the people. In such a case opposition apply NCM to deprive it from its political power.

8. Critical Analysis

The NCM is essential ingredient of any democratic society. Government's quest to squeeze NCM by means of non-democratic tactics by threatening MNAs by displaying their mass support, telling MNAs that they will be subjected to the social boycott, must be condemned in best possible words. Such threats will discourage voters to cast their vote according to their own free will which directly comes with norms of democracy. The MNAs must be allowed to exercise their constitutional right. Secondly, it is duty of government that all proceedings take place according to the constitution. People of Pakistan has drafted a constitution and people of Pakistan has elected government. Thus people of Pakistan has every right to exercise their power by means of their elected representatives. It would be very sad state of affairs if PTI further jeopardize the proceedings of the NCM. Thirdly, NCM is an effective tool to bring a regime change by means of democratic way. In the history of Pakistan all governments have been ousted by extra-constitutional and non-democratic method. But here history would be created and Khan will become first PM to be ousted by NCM. Opposition will use its constitutional power to inflict cost on government for its policy failures. Fourthly, NCM is also a litmust test for the SC. In any democratic society SC is to keep check-balance by not allowing ultra vires acts of the government. SC must ensure that constitution of Pakistan must be uphold on any cost. Lastly, in case of failure to resolve present constitutional  crisis emanated from NCM, country will have to move towards early elections. People should fasten their seat belt and must punish those who has attempted to damage soul of the constitution of the Pakistan.

9. CASE STUDY (INDIA)

Good neighbours often learn from conduct of the each other even if they don't talk. Pakistan can learn from NCM history of India. Unlike Pakistan which has seen only 2 NCM in its history, India has witnessed 27 NCMs in its history. The first NCM was moved against first PM of India  Nehru who in 1963 as a result of failure of Indo-China war of 1962. Similarly Indira Gandhi had confronted with 15 NCM. Nearly all Indian PM has now and then faced NCM in their parliament. 

The classical demonstration of ouster of PM from its office was seen in 1999 when Atal Bihari Vijaymee was defeated just by a 1 vote. He calmly transferred power to his political rivals.

More recently in 2019 PM modi also confronted with NCM which was defeated by PM Modi.

India can be a classic example where government of the day lays its faith in its parliament and proves its majority. In case of the failure to attain number, governments in India have shown way towards exit. 

10. Conclusion

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